The October 2025 numbers are in from TRREB. Here's what they show — and more importantly, what they mean.
October at a glance
- Sales: 6,138 homes sold through TRREB's MLS System — down 9.5% year-over-year
- New listings: 16,069 — up 2.7% from October 2024
- Benchmark price (MLS HPI Composite): Down 5.0% year-over-year
- Average selling price: $1,054,372 — down 7.2% compared to October 2024
- Market conditions: Continued to favour buyers, with elevated inventory and negotiated prices
- Monthly trend: On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales and listings were slightly lower than September; prices were flat month-over-month
Buyers who are confident in their jobs and income are taking advantage of better affordability. Monthly mortgage payments for an average-priced home have trended lower thanks to both lower prices and lower borrowing costs. Many others, however, remain on the sidelines due to economic uncertainty.
Budget direction — building a rental society
Federal housing spending is significant, but most of those dollars are being directed toward rental supply, affordable housing, and multi-unit construction. While some measures support first-time buyers, the overwhelming push is to make renting more accessible.
That approach has real consequences. It helps stabilize rental markets and supports new supply, but it also widens the divide between renters and owners. The result is a Canada that's slowly shifting toward a renter-majority model — much like cities such as Berlin, London, and New York, where ownership is out of reach for many and long-term renting is the norm.
Condo-to-rental conversions — builders adapting
Across the GTA, 61 condo projects have been converted to rentals in 2025. This isn't just about demand — it's about survival. Developers facing high interest costs, slow pre-sales, and tighter construction financing are pivoting to where the demand is strongest.
It's a sign of both adaptation and vulnerability. Builders are adjusting to keep projects alive and meet today's rental-heavy demand, but it reinforces that ownership opportunities are shrinking. This trend underscores how quickly the GTA is tilting toward a rent-first housing ecosystem, where developers, lenders, and policymakers are all recalibrating their strategies.
Power of sales — early warning signs
TRREB data shows an uptick in power-of-sale listings across several municipalities. This doesn't yet indicate systemic distress, but it's a warning signal that household stress is rising in specific areas. Expect more of these as variable-rate borrowers renew and as affordability remains tight.
For now, it's a patchwork: certain pockets, especially in the outer 905, are under pressure, while others remain relatively stable. It's not a collapse — but it's a sign the market is digesting years of rapid price growth and higher rates.
Interest rates — the return of variable
With the Bank of Canada's October rate cut, variable-rate products are gaining attention again. Typical 3- and 5-year fixed rates are in the 3.8–4.2% range for qualified borrowers. Variable rates, often discounted from prime, are re-emerging as attractive options for those comfortable with rate risk and longer time horizons.
The drop in borrowing costs, combined with lower home prices, means affordability has improved from last year — though sentiment remains cautious. Use our mortgage calculator to see what current rates mean for your monthly payment.
What this means in practice
The GTA market is standing on its legs because several stabilizers are in place: strong equity in most homes, prudent lending practices, and a deep-rooted cultural attachment to homeownership. But this is a rebalanced market — buyers have more leverage, and sellers must adapt to longer timelines and stricter pricing reality.
- Buying: More listings, a slower pace, better negotiating power — if you're stable and pre-approved, this is a window worth exploring. See our buyer program for how we navigate it with you.
- Selling: Be realistic and strategic. Proper pricing and standout presentation make all the difference in this environment. Our piece on pricing is worth reading before you list.
- Renewing or rate-shopping: With the new rate environment, comparing lenders and terms carefully can lock in meaningful savings over your next term.
If you'd like to understand what current conditions mean for your specific situation — whether you're buying, selling, or managing a rental — reach out and we'll walk through it with you.
